Running the numbers: how political polls can dictate votes

November 8, 2016

In his 2016 paper “Partisans and a Social Theory of Poll Effects,” Randy Besco, a post-doctoral researcher with U of T Mississauga’s department of political science, looked at how candidates who are behind in the polls are viewed by partisan voters and how that might affect voter behaviour. “Supporting a political candidate is a way for people to self-identify,” he says. “As a supporter, the voter takes on the identity of a group of people they feel like they belong to. When a candidate’s popularity is on the wane, it can reflect badly on supporters and change their behaviour, he says. “People prefer voting for winners. Losing says something bad about the party and by extension, its members and supporters. Nobody likes to identify with a losing group. It says something bad about you.” The full U of T News article is available here.